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NOVEMBER 2007
This information is from the Real Trends
presentation held at the Raleigh
Regional Association of Realtors. The main speakers were Stacy Adfindsen,
publisher of T.A.R.R. Market analysis report - Kristopher Larson, Senior
planer with Raleigh, Bill Kalkhof, Senior planner with Durham & Joe
Milazzo, Executive director with the Regional
Transportation Alliance.
The following statistics were gleaned
from the meeting and I thought you may find them of interest:
JOB GROWTH THIS YEAR - 1.4-1.6% (Depending on where in the
Triangle)....seems low but it is one of the best in the country.
CURRENT INVENTORY OF HOMES ON THE MARKET - 13,000 Which is
a 23% increase over this time last year. New homes up 21% & resales up 24%
MOST SHOW PRICE POINT - $200,000-$299,000, 2ND MOST SHOWN -
$300,000-$399,000.
LEAST SHOWN - $1,000,000+ (This part of the market is dead
for right now)
ALL SHOWINGS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD, EVERY PRICEPOINT - Year
to date down 3% and increasing, probably will for the next 12 months. (2006
however was a record year)
DAYS on MARKET - 73 (Only up 3 from last year,
but down from 2004 & 2005!)
SUPPLY - Increasing, now at 5 months aggregated but not including the
'million $ plus' which has a huge supply. They are not selling and I did
a
little research of my own that revealed there are 239 for sale in our
MLS, just in Wake County. Area wide there are 364!
INCENTIVES -- They are up In last week's paper 107
of the new home
communities were advertising incentives. From vacations to low interest
rates to upgrades.
AVERAGE LIST PRICES ARE UP, SLIGHTLY...Resales to $248K ....New
construction to $381K
APPRECIATION - LAST 12 MONTHS -- US 3.2% NC 7.1% (Fueled
by mountains and coast) Raleigh 4.8% TMLS 5.8%
AREAS OF UNDER SUPPLY -- Any single family detached
home under $300,000, areawide but especially in areas 1,2,7,10,15 (Inside
the beltline/North Raleigh/Far North Raleigh/Morrisville & Apex)
HOUSING STARTS ARE DOWN BETWEEN 10% & 15%,
DEPENDING ON WHERE
Downtown Durham and Raleigh are experiencing incredible growth
in office and condo space.
Residential is mostly high dollar and a definite "niche" market
that is
doing surprisingly well. It may see some slowdowns and may be a sector
that gets temporarily oversupplied. There are 688 being built right
now and there is another 1288 residential condos in the planning/permitting
stage.
Office space in Raleigh: 91.74% occupied, all classes,
and showing very good absorption rate of 88% last year.
1,245,000 square feet of office space is in planning right now in the
downtown district....plus 191,000 of retail space.
Undeveloped land in the downtown district is now fetching about $67 a
square foot....That is $2,918,520 an acre!
One of the biggest area concerns is road building and the panel called
for a much increased push to finish I-540, the Durham Expressway (Hwy
147), and the east end connector (Durham).
The lull in our market is nationally driven and all expect it's effects
to
be felt through much of 2008 but all equally expect us to do much better
than nearly every other city in the country.
Per a statement released by the
NAR last week only three major cities
showed growth currently AND were expected to continue to show growth in the
US: Salt Lake City; Austin, Tx; Raleigh. Overall they said to expect a bumpy
ride for the next 8-15 months but we are poised for growth, building infrastructure
is critical to our long term continued growth.
I hope you find this of interest, Randy
Randy Scherr
ABR, SRES, IDSA, Broker In Charge
Heart's Delight Realty
107 Windel Drive / Suite 205
Raleigh, North Carolina 27609
919-272-0191
919-790-9439 fax
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